Tuesday, September 29, 2009

How fast are India's states growing, and why?

Three years ago I did the following calculations based on per capita state domestic products:

State

1993-94

2003-04

Growth (percent)

Growth rank

Andhra Pradesh

7416

11756

58.52

5

Bihar

3037

3557

17.12

18

Jharkhand

5897

7732

31.12

13

Goa

16558

30506

84.24

1

Gujarat

9796

16780

71.29

3

Haryana

11079

15752

42.18

9

Karnataka

7838

13141

67.66

4

Kerala

7983

12328

54.43

7

Madhya Pradesh

6584

8284

25.82

16

Chhattisgarh

6539

8383

28.20

14

Maharashtra

12183

16479

35.26

11

Orissa

4896

6487

32.50

12

Punjab

12710

16119

26.82

15

Rajasthan

6182

9685

56.66

6

Tamil Nadu

8955

12976

44.90

8

Uttar Pradesh

5066

5975

17.94

17

Uttaranchal

6896

9471

37.34

10

West Bengal

6756

11612

71.88

2

You can see that over the decade used in the table, the three slowest growing states were poor ones: Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. Punjab, a rich state, grew quite slowly too.

There is newer data now, and here is a calculation for a later seven year period. It leaves out Uttarakhand (Uttaranchal) and Goa, since they are quite small.Note that the data for per capita SDP are not comparable across the tables because they use different base years for the constant price index in which they are measured.


99-00 SDP PC

06-07 SDP PC

Growth

Rank

Andhra Pradesh

15507

22835

58.56

6

Bihar

5786

8167

62.43

3

Chhattisgarh

11629

15660

51.74

8

Gujarat

18864

27027

62.02

4

Haryana

23229

37314

85.75

1

Jharkhand

11549

14252

39.40

13

Karnataka

17502

22952

43.62

11

Kerala

19461

30044

63.67

2

Madhya Pradesh

12384

12881

18.95

16

Maharashtra

23011

30982

50.83

9

Orissa

10567

15528

59.02

5

Punjab

25631

30041

32.58

15

Rajasthan

13619

16460

39.69

12

Tamil Nadu

19432

28320

54.81

7

Uttar Pradesh

9749

11334

33.95

14

West Bengal

15888

21753

48.90

10

Haryana and Kerala do a lot better in this later snapshot. Karnataka does relatively worse. Bihar also does a lot better. Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and, yes, Punjab are still growing relatively slowly over these seven years (the periods do overlap).

All kinds of things can affect growth rates, but my guess is that governance matters a lot.

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