Many observers have commented at length on India’s apparent policy
drift, in which economic reforms are being stalled, or even reversed.
The last Union Budget’s retrospective taxation and anti-tax-avoidance
moves prompted The Economist magazine to answer its question, “what does
the Indian government want?” with a discussion of “three theories:
that it is clueless, that it wants symbolic control, and that it wants
cash.” The tax and investment policy mess is just one dimension of an
odd state of affairs in Indian policymaking. What the government wants
is perhaps best understood by considering what the individuals in the
government want. And here the underlying emotions may be the best guide
to understanding what is happening and what will come next.
In 2009, Dominique Moïsi came out with a slim volume titled, The
Geopolitics of Emotion, with a subtitle, How Cultures of Fear,
Humiliation, and Hope Are Reshaping the World, which summarises his
central argument. Moïsi’s analysis is impressionistic and broad-brush,
focusing on fear in the West and humiliation in the Arab or Muslim
world, with hope associated with Asia, particularly China and
(ironically) India. Indeed, hope had been rising for many in India for
the first decade of the 21st century, making the current mood a stark
contrast. The informal nature of the book’s arguments should not detract
from the theme that emotions are powerful predictors of behaviour. With
this in mind, one can extend this theme to the level of policymakers in
India.
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